Sign in with Google 
Hany Abdelkawi is Google’s leading expert on global innovations and research within the travel sector. His latest travel report was developed with consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal.
The outlook for the travel industry has never been stronger, but the rules are changing. By 2050, the global traveller base will not just grow, it will fundamentally restructure. As the travelling population expands from 50% to 70%, travel is transitioning from a discretionary luxury to a non-negotiable necessity.1
This shift will inject an additional $4.2 trillion in spend and 1.9 billion new trips into the ecosystem compared to 2025.2 But here is the warning for the C-suite: Volume is not value. Demand in 2050 will be fragmented across destinations, domestic-heavy, and significantly more costly to acquire without a shift in strategy.
Travel roadmap to 2050: Key shifts in global mobility
Google’s latest research with Alvarez & Marsal maps out the exciting future for the travel industry. It explores the critical implications for brands — and the steps they must take today to capture this opportunity.
Key report insights include:
- Robust demand growth: International trips have doubled over the past 25 years and are expected to double again by 2050, reaching around 3.5 billion departures.3
- Diversification of destinations: The era of the “Big Five” destinations is ending.4 Our data predicts that the market share of today’s top 5 destinations will drop from 26% to 18% by 2050.5 Growth is spreading to a broader set of countries, with destinations ranked lower than the top 15 gaining a significant share.6 This fragmentation demands a fundamental shift in search strategy. As traveller interest widens, brands must expand their scope to capture the ‘long tail’ — optimising for more destinations than ever before.
- Value vs. volume: APAC will surpass Europe in outbound travel volume and total spend as regional travel expands with the rising middle class and emerging economies. Travellers from Europe, however, will lead in spend per trip growth, supported by the region’s mature short-haul base and a higher share of long-haul travel.
- Domestic travel as the backbone: Domestic travel will remain the industry’s foundation, accounting for over 90% of total trips.7 To capture this volume, travel brands require a dedicated domestic search strategy as people employ different keywords and behaviours when booking domestic trips compared to international holidays. For global operators, domestic bookings are also an invaluable entry point to brand loyalty. Introducing local travellers to high service standards today is an effective way to lock in their high-value international yield tomorrow.
- The agentic AI catalyst: Managing 3.5 billion departures with today’s manual or linear digital processes is impossible. The shift to agentic AI is not just about a better chatbot; it is about autonomous operational efficiency. AI is already moving from “assisting” the traveller to “managing” the journey. In the future, it will also be possible for travellers to finish booking flights and hotels directly in AI Mode. This means travel brands should carefully consider the content they create for potential holiday-makers to ensure they show up in this booking process. Those that provide clear, detailed information designed to answer customer questions are more likely to be surfaced in Google’s AI-powered responses.
“Tech-native consumers and an affluent senior segment will soon dominate travel spend, requiring differentiated products aligned to new patterns, such as extended stays, community-building, and solo travel,” added Jorge Gilabert, managing director at Alvarez & Marsal.
He continued: “And while agentic AI will reshape operating models, unlocking its potential requires modernising data foundations today. All, while remembering that human-touch service remains the defining differentiator in a sector built on people serving people.”
As we move from the age of information into the age of agency, volume no longer guarantees profit. Without the right tools, it will just generate more noise.
The winners of 2050 will be the travel brands that use AI to master the complexities of distribution, ensuring their value is recognised by algorithms and travellers alike. The mandate is simple: automate the logic to scale the magic.
