First time buyers are still buying but the gap just widened.
New data from a top five lender shows first time buyers dropped from 56 percent of purchase loans in 2022 to just 49 percent in 2025. Same median age of 33. But their median income had to jump 25 percent to $77,208 just to qualify. Their median purchase price hit $345,741 with down payments still razor thin at 4.85 percent.
Meanwhile repeat buyers are pulling further ahead. Their median income climbed to $110,139. Their median purchase price hit $482,000 with 14.82 percent down. The gap between first timers and move up buyers isn't closing. It's accelerating. And the buyers who are getting in are working significantly harder with higher incomes to make it happen.
Here's what that means if you're trying to buy your first home in Phoenix right now. The dream is still alive but the bar moved higher. You need more income or a creative loan structure to compete. FHA and low down payment programs are doing the heavy lifting. If you're waiting for prices to drop so it gets easier, this data says the opposite is happening.
My take? If you can qualify today, don't wait for perfect conditions that aren't coming. Rates and prices aren't going backwards. The buyers closing now are the ones who stopped waiting.
DM me directly and I'll send you the full breakdown of what you can actually afford with your income today.
