A 30% drop and a 30% gain are not the same size.
If a portfolio falls 30%, it takes about a 43% gain just to get back to where it started. That's arithmetic, not a market forecast, and it's true for anyone's money.
While working, most people can wait that out. In retirement, there's a second thing happening at the same time: you're taking income. Every dollar drawn during the climb back is a dollar that never gets to recover.
That's why I talk less about whether a downturn happens and more about when. The five years on either side of a retirement date are the ones that matter most.
Would you agree that a loss in year two of retirement lands differently than the same loss in year twenty?
Illustrative math only; not a projection of any investment.
